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0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Mortality -20% Improvement Relative Risk Recovery at day 28 30% c19hcq.com Abd-Elsalam et al. HCQ for COVID-19 RCT LATE TREATMENT Favors HCQ Favors control
Abd-Elsalam, 194 patient HCQ late treatment RCT: 20% higher mortality [p=1] and 30% improved recovery [p=0.009] https://c19p.org/abdelsalam
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Hydroxychloroquine in the Treatment of COVID-19: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Study
Abd-Elsalam et al., American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, doi:10.4269/ajtmh.20-0873
14 Aug 2020    Source   PDF   Share   Tweet
Small RCT in Egypt with 97/97 HCQ/control patients, showing 58% more recovery @28days for HCQ (53.6% HCQ, 34% control), p=0.009 (0.06 in the paper refers to the 5 combined recovery/death/ICU values).
No significant difference in ventilation and mortality (<=6 examples in each case). Authors note the "sample size was not adequately powered for [the] survival endpoint".
Other studies have also shown treated patient cases resolved faster. Continuing analysis past 28 days would be useful. Group characteristics are given, with for example 36% vs. 26% smokers, but they do not identify which group is which. Group 1 and 2 have 97 patients but the total given is 175.
risk of death, 20.0% higher, RR 1.20, p = 1.00, treatment 6 of 97 (6.2%), control 5 of 97 (5.2%).
risk of no recovery at day 28, 30.0% lower, RR 0.70, p = 0.009, treatment 45 of 97 (46.4%), control 64 of 97 (66.0%), NNT 5.1.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Abd-Elsalam et al., 8/14/2020, Randomized Controlled Trial, Egypt, Africa, peer-reviewed, 10 authors.
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