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0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Case 17% Improvement Relative Risk Case (b) 25% c19hcq.com Boulware et al. HCQ for COVID-19 RCT PEP Favors HCQ Favors folic acid
Boulware, 821 patient HCQ prophylaxis RCT: 17% fewer cases [p=0.35] https://c19p.org/boulwarepep
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A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19
Boulware et al., NEJM, June 3 2020, doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2016638
3 Jun 2020    Source   PDF   Share   Tweet
Update: we have not received details for treatment delay. Reportedly, time of dosing was not recorded in these trials: [osf.io]. See [medrxiv.org], and Pullen et al. [ncbi.nlm.nih.gov], which shows shipping delay for these trials of 19 - 68 hours. With enrollment up to 4 days from exposure, this implies delivery 19 - 164 hours after exposure (19 hours would require instantaneous enrollment).
COVID-19 cases are reduced by [49%, 29%, 16%] respectively when taken within ~[70, 94, 118] hours of exposure (including shipping delay). The treatment delay-response relationship is significant at p=0.002. PEP delayed treatment RCT.
For more detailed analysis, see [c19hcq.com].
6 independent analyses of the data in this study confirm efficacy: [arxiv.org, blog.philbirnbaum.com, drive.google.com, longdom.org, medrxiv.org (B), osf.io (B), researchgate.net].
Regarding the use of folic acid, see [sciencedirect.com].
risk of case, 17.0% lower, RR 0.83, p = 0.35, treatment 49 of 414 (11.8%), control 58 of 407 (14.3%), NNT 41.
risk of case, 25.1% lower, RR 0.75, p = 0.22, treatment 32 of 414 (7.7%), control 42 of 407 (10.3%), NNT 39, probable COVID-19 cases.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Boulware et al., 6/3/2020, Randomized Controlled Trial, USA, North America, peer-reviewed, 24 authors, this trial compares with another treatment - results may be better when compared to placebo.
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