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0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Mortality 65% Improvement Relative Risk Mortality (b) 25% Mortality (c) 57% c19hcq.com/falcone.html Favors HCQ Favors control
19 November 2020 - Late treatment study
Role of low-molecular weight heparin in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia: a prospective observational study
Falcone et al., Open Forum Infectious Diseases, doi:10.1093/ofid/ofaa563 (Peer Reviewed)
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Prospective observational study of 315 hospitalized patients in Italy showing 65% lower mortality with HCQ. The median treatment delay was 6 days for survivors and 6.5 days for non-survivors. Mortality relative risk:
RR 0.35, p = 0.2, propensity score matched
RR 0.75, p = 0.36, multivariate Cox regression
RR 0.43, p < 0.001, univariate Cox regression
risk of death, 65.0% lower, RR 0.35, p = 0.20, treatment 40 of 238 (16.8%), control 30 of 77 (39.0%), NNT 4.5, adjusted per study, PSM.
risk of death, 25.0% lower, RR 0.75, p = 0.36, treatment 40 of 238 (16.8%), control 30 of 77 (39.0%), NNT 4.5, adjusted per study, multivariate Cox regression.
risk of death, 57.0% lower, RR 0.43, p < 0.001, treatment 40 of 238 (16.8%), control 30 of 77 (39.0%), NNT 4.5, adjusted per study, univariate Cox regression.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes.
Falcone et al., 11/19/2020, prospective, propensity score matching, Italy, Europe, peer-reviewed, 19 authors, average treatment delay 6.5 days.
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