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0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Death/intubation -4% Improvement Relative Risk c19hcq.com Geleris et al. HCQ for COVID-19 LATE TREATMENT Favors HCQ Favors control
Geleris, 1,446 patient HCQ late treatment study: 4% higher combined mortality/intubation [p=0.76] https://c19p.org/geleris
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Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19
Geleris et al., NEJM, May 7, 2020, doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2012410
7 May 2020    Source   PDF   Share   Tweet
Before propensity matching, 38 control patients had hypertension. After propensity matching, 146 patients had hypertension (Table 1). Even if all propensity matched control patients had hypertension, the control prevalence would only be 14% compared to 49% for treatment. Since patients with hypertension are at much greater risk of mortality (HR 2.12, see [academic.oup.com]), this appears to invalidate the results.
Observational study of 1,446 hospitalized patients showing no significant effect on a combined intubation/death outcome for late treatment.
However, secondary analysis shows the success of HCQ was hidden by combining intubation and death - death / (combined death/intubation) for HCQ was 60% vs. control 89%, for details see: [twitter.com].
RCT recommended. No AZ or Zinc. HCQ group much sicker - patients already in mild/moderate ARDS, most of the control group not in ARDS. Control cases received other therapeutics.
risk of death/intubation, 4.0% higher, HR 1.04, p = 0.76, treatment 262 of 811 (32.3%), control 84 of 565 (14.9%), adjusted per study.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
This study is excluded in the after exclusion results of meta analysis: significant issues found with adjustments.
Geleris et al., 5/7/2020, retrospective, USA, North America, peer-reviewed, 12 authors.
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