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0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Hospitalization 26% Improvement Relative Risk Case -49% c19hcq.com Macias et al. HCQ for COVID-19 PrEP Favors HCQ Favors control
Macias, 722 patient HCQ prophylaxis study: 26% lower hospitalization [p=1] and 49% more cases [p=0.53] https://c19p.org/macias
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Similar incidence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with rheumatic diseases with and without hydroxychloroquine therapy
Macias et al., medRxiv, 10.1101/2020.05.16.20104141 (Preprint)
16 May 2020    Source   PDF   Share   Tweet
Very small retrospective study of rheumatic disease patients, sample size is too small for statistical significance (HCQ 0.5-4.0%, no-HCQ 0.4-2.7%). Confirmed cases were 1 HCQ and 2 no-HCQ, confirmed+likely cases were 1 HCQ and 3 no-HCQ. 1 HCQ and 2 no-HCQ patients were admitted to hospital. We do not think a conclusion can be drawn based on these sample sizes.
There are very significant differences between the groups, for example 30% of the HCQ group have SLE vs. 2.5% of the no-HCQ group. SLE patients have a 5.7 times relative risk of pneumonia according to [ncbi.nlm.nih.gov], whereas the relative risk with glucocorticoids and TNF-α inhibitors is significantly lower [academic.oup.com]. Two more recent studies with rheumatic disease/autoimmune condition patients provide higher confidence.
risk of hospitalization, 25.5% lower, RR 0.74, p = 1.00, treatment 1 of 290 (0.3%), control 2 of 432 (0.5%), NNT 846.
risk of case, 49.0% higher, RR 1.49, p = 0.53, treatment 5 of 290 (1.7%), control 5 of 432 (1.2%).
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
This study is excluded in the after exclusion results of meta analysis: not fully adjusting for the baseline risk differences within systemic autoimmune patients.
Macias et al., 5/16/2020, retrospective, database analysis, Spain, Europe, preprint, 12 authors.
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