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HCQ study #152 of 255
10/2 Late treatment study
Nachega et al., The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, doi:10.4269/ajtmh.20-1240 (Peer Reviewed)
Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 in Africa: Early Insights from the Democratic Republic of the Congo
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Retrospective 766 hospitalized patients in DRC showing mortality reduced from 29% to 11%, and improvement at 30 days increased from 65% to 84%.
Mortality cox regression adjusted hazard ratio aHR 0.26, p < 0.001
Risk of no improvement adjusted odds ratio aOR 0.28, p < 0.001
Using marginal structural model analysis these risks became:
Mortality MSM adjusted odds ratio aOR 0.65, p = 0.166
Risk of no improvement MSM adjusted odds ratio aOR = 0.65, p = 0.132
Median age 46, 630 treated with CQ+AZ.

Nachega et al., 10/2/2020, retrospective, database analysis, Democratic Republic of Congo, Africa, peer-reviewed, median age 46.0, 25 authors.
risk of death, 27.6% lower, RR 0.72, p = 0.17, treatment 69 of 630 (11.0%), control 28 of 96 (29.2%), adjusted per study, odds ratio converted to relative risk.
risk of no improvement, 25.8% lower, RR 0.74, p = 0.13, adjusted per study, odds ratio converted to relative risk.

Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. For an individual study the most serious outcome may have a smaller number of events and lower statistical signficance, however this provides the strongest evidence for the most serious outcomes when combining the results of many trials.
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