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0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Mortality 79% Improvement Relative Risk Mortality (b) 48% ICU admission 87% c19vitamind.com/nogues.html Favors vitamin D Favors control
22 January 2021 - Late treatment study
Calcifediol Treatment and COVID-19-Related Outcomes
Nogués et al., The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, doi:10.1210/clinem/dgab405 (Peer Reviewed)
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Quasi-randomized trial with 930 hospitalized patients, 447 treated with calcifediol, showing significantly lower ICU admission and death with treatment. Note that the randomization in this trial is by ward. Authors report that patients were allocated to empty beds available at admission time regardless of patient conditions, and that staff in all wards followed the same protocol.
The earlier preprint for this article was censored by the Lancet. The Lancet reportedly requested a review from a Twitter user that posted negative comments [1]. The review provides useful feedback for the authors to improve the reporting of the cluster nature of the RCT, and to explain the delay in registration, however it is highly unusual to censor a preprint in this way. Authors responded to the issues raised here: [2]
risk of death, 79.0% lower, RR 0.21, p = 0.001, treatment 21 of 447 (4.7%), control 62 of 391 (15.9%), NNT 9.0, adjusted per study, ITT.
risk of death, 48.0% lower, RR 0.52, p = 0.001, treatment 500, control 338, adjusted per study, including patients treated later.
risk of ICU admission, 87.0% lower, RR 0.13, p < 0.001, treatment 20 of 447 (4.5%), control 82 of 391 (21.0%), NNT 6.1, adjusted per study, ITT.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes.
Nogués et al., 1/22/2021, prospective quasi-randomized (ward), Spain, Europe, peer-reviewed, 16 authors, dosage calcifediol 0.5mg day 1, 0.27mg day 3, 0.27mg day 7, 0.27mg day 15, 0.27mg day 30.
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