Early terminated very late stage (65% on supplemental oxygen) RCT with 242 HCQ and 237 control patients not showing a significant difference, 28 day mortality adjusted odds ratio aOR 0.93 [0.48-1.85].
For the subgroup not on supplemental oxygen at baseline (relatively early treatment), the odds ratio for the 7 point outcome scale is:
aOR 0.61 [0.34-1.08]
Dosage may be too low:
Dose in first 24 hours - 1g (compare to Boulware et al. 2g)
Dose in 5 days - 2.4g (compare to Boulware et al. 3.8g)
Dosage note: Boulware 2g within 24 hours includes the second day dose. Note two important differences with the RECOVERY/SOLIDARITY dosage which is believed to be dangerously high - in RECOVERY/SOLIDARITY the total dose is much higher, which is problematic because the half-life of HCQ is very long, and it is given to patients that are already in very serious condition.
Note the paper reports primary outcome values with OR>1 favoring HCQ, we have converted to OR<1 favoring HCQ. Subgroup analysis is in the supplemental appendix.
Self et al., 11/9/2020, Randomized Controlled Trial, USA, North America, peer-reviewed, 33 authors.
risk of death, 6.2% higher, RR 1.06, p = 0.84, treatment 25 of 241 (10.4%), control 25 of 236 (10.6%), adjusted per study, odds ratio converted to relative risk.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules
prioritizing more serious outcomes. For an individual study the most serious
outcome may have a smaller number of events and lower statistical signficance,
however this provides the strongest evidence for the most serious outcomes
when combining the results of many trials.
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