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0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Mortality -6% Improvement Relative Risk c19hcq.com Self et al. HCQ for COVID-19 RCT LATE TREATMENT Favors HCQ Favors control
Self, 477 patient HCQ late treatment RCT: 6% higher mortality [p=0.85] https://c19p.org/self
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Effect of Hydroxychloroquine on Clinical Status at 14 Days in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial
Self et al., JAMA, doi:10.1001/jama.2020.22240
9 Nov 2020    Source   PDF   Share   Tweet
Early terminated very late stage (65% on supplemental oxygen) RCT with 242 HCQ and 237 control patients not showing a significant difference, 28 day mortality adjusted odds ratio aOR 0.93 [0.48-1.85].
For the subgroup not on supplemental oxygen at baseline (relatively early treatment), the odds ratio for the 7 point outcome scale is:
aOR 0.61 [0.34-1.08]
Dosage may be too low:
Dose in first 24 hours - 1g (compare to Boulware et al. 2g)
Dose in 5 days - 2.4g (compare to Boulware et al. 3.8g)
Dosage note: Boulware 2g within 24 hours includes the second day dose. Note two important differences with the RECOVERY/SOLIDARITY dosage which is believed to be dangerously high - in RECOVERY/SOLIDARITY the total dose is much higher, which is problematic because the half-life of HCQ is very long, and it is given to patients that are already in very serious condition.
Note the paper reports primary outcome values with OR>1 favoring HCQ, we have converted to OR<1 favoring HCQ. Subgroup analysis is in the supplemental appendix.
risk of death, 6.2% higher, RR 1.06, p = 0.85, treatment 25 of 241 (10.4%), control 25 of 236 (10.6%), NNT 455, adjusted per study, odds ratio converted to relative risk.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Self et al., 11/9/2020, Randomized Controlled Trial, USA, North America, peer-reviewed, 33 authors, average treatment delay 5.0 days.
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