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0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Mortality -19% Improvement Relative Risk c19hcq.com/solidarity.html Favors HCQ Favors control
15 October 2020 - Late treatment study
Repurposed antiviral drugs for COVID-19; interim WHO SOLIDARITY trial results
SOLIDARITY Trial Consortium, NEJM, doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2023184 (preprint 10/15) (Peer Reviewed)
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WHO SOLIDARITY open-label trial with 954 very late stage (64% on oxygen/ventilation) HCQ patients, mortality relative risk RR 1.19 [0.89-1.59], p=0.23.
HCQ dosage very high as in RECOVERY, 1.6g in the first 24 hours, 9.6g total over 10 days, only 25% less than the high dosage that Borba et al. show greatly increases risk (OR 2.8) [1].
Authors state they do not know the weight or obesity status of patients to analyze toxicity (since they do not adjust dosage based on patient weight, toxicity may be higher in patients of lower weight).
KM curves show a spike in HCQ mortality days 5-7, corresponding to ~90% of the total excess seen at day 28 (a similar spike is seen in the RECOVERY trial).
Almost all excess mortality is from ventilated patients.
Authors refer to a lack of excess mortality in the first few days to suggest a lack of toxicity, but they are ignoring the very long half-life of HCQ and the dosing regimen - much higher levels of HCQ will be reached later. Increased mortality in Borba et al. occurred after 2 days.
An unspecified percentage used the more toxic CQ. No placebo used.
For more on the dosing problems see
[2], also noting that concentrations vary substantially in different tissues and lung concentration may be >30x plasma concentration.
risk of death, 19.0% higher, RR 1.19, p = 0.23, treatment 104 of 947 (11.0%), control 84 of 906 (9.3%).
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes.
This study is excluded in the after exclusion results of meta analysis: excessive dosage in late stage patients, results do not apply to typical dosages, very late stage, >50% on oxygen/ventilation at baseline.
SOLIDARITY et al., 10/15/2020, Randomized Controlled Trial, multiple countries, multiple regions, peer-reviewed, baseline oxygen requirements 64.0%, 15 authors.
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