Small prophylaxis survey showing lower, but not statistically significant, progression to pneumonia (3 of 148 HCQ, 12 of 416 control), RR 0.70, p
= 0.77. There was a higher incidence of cases with HCQ, OR 1.19, p
= 0.58, which may be due to survey bias, treatment self-selection, and inconsistent regimens. Improvement on severity may be related to the much higher HCQ concentration in lung tissue, and also reflect that binary PCR does not distinguish replication-competence. Details of the pneumonia numbers for treatment/control are from the author.
Gönenli et al., 12/16/2020, retrospective, Turkey, Middle East, preprint, survey, 4 authors.
risk of pneumonia, 29.7% lower, RR 0.70, p = 0.77, treatment 3 of 148 (2.0%), control 12 of 416 (2.9%).
risk of COVID-19 case, 18.9% higher, RR 1.19, p = 0.58, treatment 8 of 148 (5.4%), control 20 of 416 (4.8%), odds ratio converted to relative risk.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules
prioritizing more serious outcomes. For an individual study the most serious
outcome may have a smaller number of events and lower statistical signficance,
however this provides the strongest evidence for the most serious outcomes
when combining the results of many trials.